ASX 200 Set to Open Lower on Copper and Oil Gains

BHP and Rio, both heavily exposed to copper, stand to benefit most from the metal’s rally, which reflects tight supply and fears of U.S. tariffs. BHP shares closed at 90.42 on Friday, with Rio ending at 103.27, and both have held well above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, underlining the market’s preference for miners tied to scarce industrial commodities.

The Australian dollar has also climbed to a four-month high around 72 U.S. cents, helped by stronger commodity prices. That gives local markets a tailwind through better terms of trade, but it can also limit gains for exporters and broader equities by tightening financial conditions and weighing on overseas earnings translated back into local currency.

Oil’s advance adds another layer of pressure for investors. Higher crude prices support energy producers but threaten margins for airlines, transport stocks and consumer companies, while complicating the inflation outlook just as central banks remain sensitive to any renewed price shock.

Stocks going ex-dividend, including BlueScope Steel, Mineral Resources and News Corp, will also subtract from the index at the open. Still, the main market driver remains the commodity complex: miners are set to outperform, while the broader ASX is likely to struggle for direction unless copper and oil ease or U.S. rate expectations shift.