BIST 100 Falls Ahead of Fed Decision

The biggest sectoral laggard was investment trusts, which dropped 2.18%, while financial leasing and factoring led gains with a 0.71% rise. That split suggests the market is rotating within a weak tape rather than mounting a broad recovery, with appetite concentrated in select financial names while more interest-rate-sensitive or benchmark-linked segments remain under strain.

The macro backdrop is doing most of the work. Easing pressure in bond markets and a slower climb in oil prices have helped stabilize sentiment globally, but that has not been enough to offset caution ahead of the Fed. For emerging-market assets such as Turkish equities, US rate expectations matter directly through capital flows, the dollar and financing conditions. Any hawkish surprise would risk tightening financial conditions further just as domestic shares are trying to hold recent gains.

Technically, analysts said 13,700 and 13,600 are the first support levels for the BIST 100, with 14,000 and 14,100 seen as resistance. That makes the current move important not just as a one-day drop, but as a test of whether the index can defend a short-term floor after yesterday’s heavy selling.

The broader investor message is that markets are still trading on policy uncertainty rather than fundamentals alone. If the Fed signals a slower pace of easing, Turkish stocks could remain vulnerable to foreign outflows and valuation compression. If the message is more dovish, the BIST 100 may get room to stabilize, but only if domestic sentiment improves enough to bring in fresh buying beyond the bank sector.