Bitcoin liquidity view targets $100,000

That matters because liquidity cycles, not headlines, have historically done the most to move Bitcoin over time. When central banks and governments flood markets with cash, investors tend to reach for assets with fixed supply and high upside torque. Bitcoin fits that description better than almost anything else in public markets, which is why Hayes told listeners to “get on the fastest horse.”

The macro setup is not trivial. Federal Reserve balance-sheet assets remain around $6.74 trillion, down from the pandemic peak but still far above pre-2020 levels, while U.S. M2 money supply is again climbing and is forecast to reach about $23.4 trillion next month. Consumer prices are also materially higher than they were before the inflation shock, with the CPI index near 333, underscoring why policymakers may keep choosing financial support over true restraint.

For investors, the message is straightforward: Bitcoin is increasingly being treated as a liquidity trade with a long runway, not just a speculative token. Hayes thinks that dynamic could help BTC retest $70,000 before its next move higher, then potentially work through $80,000, $90,000 and eventually $100,000 if fresh liquidity arrives. Bitcoin recently traded around $77,000, sitting just above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while its relative strength reading has cooled from overheated levels — a reminder that even strong secular stories do not move in a straight line.

Hayes also suggested that AI stocks have been soaking up speculative capital that might otherwise have gone into Bitcoin, but that this could reverse if investors grow more skeptical about AI spending and returns. If that happens alongside more policy easing, the capital rotation could favor Bitcoin and gold over the market’s earlier momentum winners.

One notable wrinkle is his cooler view on Strategy Inc. Hayes argued that the company matters less to Bitcoin’s price than it once did because investors can now get direct BTC exposure through ETFs without taking on the corporate-finance risks that come with a levered proxy. That is important for anyone building a Bitcoin allocation: the asset itself may still be the cleanest expression of the thesis, while some of the older equity wrappers could lose relevance.

None of this means Bitcoin is risk-free. A retest of $70,000 would still be a meaningful pullback, and a stronger dollar or tighter liquidity conditions could easily delay the next advance. But for long-term investors, the broader narrative is clear: if central banks keep choosing balance-sheet expansion over real austerity, Bitcoin remains one of the most powerful ways to own the consequences.

For patient investors, that is exactly the kind of secular setup worth watching closely and holding through volatility.