Bitcoin, S&P 500 Firm as September Crash Fear Builds

That backdrop is already visible in the tape. Bitcoin ended Aug. 31 at $78,605.90, more than double its level in April and up sharply from the $62,702 low hit in early February. The token has traded above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages for months, though its RSI reading of 82.3 shows the market is stretched and vulnerable to sharp swings.

Even after the recent surge, the crypto trade remains tightly linked to broader risk appetite. The S&P 500 ETF finished Aug. 31 at 767.05, while the Nasdaq-100 ETF closed at 716.76, leaving both near the upper end of their recent ranges. Adalytica’s S&P 500 Trade Signals snapshot still shows “Greed” on sentiment even as awareness sits at “Extreme Fear,” a combination that suggests investors are uneasy but have not fully stepped away from equities.

Lee’s call also lands as Bitcoin has reasserted itself as a macro bet on liquidity, dollar weakness and risk tolerance rather than just a speculative side trade. Adalytica’s U.S. dollar signals show neutral sentiment with elevated awareness, reinforcing the view that any further softening in the greenback could support crypto and high-beta stocks.

For investors, the key question is whether the market is already too comfortable. Bitcoin’s MACD remains positive and above its signal line, but the elevated RSI and the fact that it is trading near the top of its Bollinger Band range point to a market that may need a catalyst to keep advancing. If September passes without the crash traders have been bracing for, Lee’s rally scenario could draw in sidelined capital and force more systematic buying.

The next test is whether macro data, Federal Reserve expectations and any new tariff or regulatory headlines validate the risk-on trade or revive the correction trade that Lee says could be the fuel for it.