Bitcoin Fails to Hold $80,000 on Weak Spot Demand

In other words, the supply overhang is fading, but demand has not yet filled the vacuum. Accumulation addresses now control about 2.3 million BTC, and deposits to exchanges have not accelerated as bitcoin approached $80,000, which points to a market where existing holders are more patient. Yet spot cumulative volume delta over 90 days remains neutral, indicating buyers on the open market are not pressing the tape with conviction. Darkfost said derivatives traders have led the rebound while spot flows stay flat, underscoring why bitcoin has been able to recover only selectively.

That makes the macro backdrop more important. Stronger-than-expected August payrolls, at 162,000 versus a 53,000 consensus, lifted the odds of a September rate increase to nearly 60%. Higher-for-longer rate expectations usually pressure risk assets, especially crypto, because they tighten liquidity and raise the hurdle for speculative positioning. Bitcoin still ended the week up 3.45%, according to Wintermute, but that advance came despite a shift that would normally weigh on both crypto and equities, suggesting the market is trying to rally before it has secured a more durable demand base.

Stablecoin liquidity offers only partial confirmation. Binance stablecoin reserves had exceeded $50 billion earlier in the cycle, then fell by almost $7 billion before rebounding by $1.6 billion last month. The 90-day change in Binance’s stablecoin market cap improved to minus 1.6% from minus 17%, a clear improvement, but still too weak to imply a sustained influx of cash. In practical terms, the market may have stopped bleeding liquidity, but it has not yet regained the firepower typically needed to push bitcoin decisively above a round-number resistance zone.

The technical picture is consistent with that hesitation. Bitcoin remains just above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the recent move has pushed RSI readings back toward neutral after oversold conditions earlier in the year. But with the price still below $80,000 and well under the upper Bollinger Band near $81,026, traders are treating the area as resistance rather than a confirmed breakout. The bearish bull-case divide is straightforward: if spot demand finally joins the move, the market can convert reduced selling into a genuine uptrend; if not, the rebound risks fading into another range trade.

For investors, the key question is not whether sellers have given up — they largely have — but whether enough new money is entering to absorb the remaining supply and break the market out of its tentative recovery. Until spot demand improves and liquidity broadens, bitcoin is likely to remain vulnerable to macro shocks and to failed attempts at reclaiming $80,000.