Bitcoin Struggles Above $80,000 on Weak U.S. Demand

A key gauge of American appetite is still flashing caution. Coinbase’s seven-day average premium, which measures the price on the largest U.S. exchange against international platforms, has stayed negative for more than four months, even through last month’s surge. That suggests U.S. buyers are not paying up to accumulate coins, a warning sign for a market that has repeatedly depended on domestic demand to extend rallies.

Glassnode said average daily ETF inflows during the recent advance reached $290 million, but trading activity remained below levels seen in earlier bull runs. The analytics firm said ETF flows driven by isolated policy news, rather than broader market momentum, often mark local turning points.

Macro conditions are also turning less supportive. Hopes for lower rates were jolted after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, reviving bets that the central bank could raise rates again to fight inflation. The Fed meets Sept. 15-16, and any shift toward tighter policy would likely weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin.

Even if the rally extends, Glassnode says long-term holders may look to sell into strength in the $83,000 to $86,000 zone, creating a potential ceiling before a cleaner breakout can develop. The recent move also appears to have been aided by short covering, which leaves less fuel for another leg higher.

“Much of this rally likely came from short covering, leaving positioning close to neutral,” IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore said, adding that pullbacks into the $70,000-$75,000 area should continue to attract buyers. Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average sits at $69,507, a level traders are likely to watch if the current advance loses momentum.

For investors, the question is whether bitcoin can rebuild on stronger spot demand or whether it is just squeezing shorts in a market still vulnerable to U.S. macro shifts and seller supply. The next catalyst is the Fed meeting, followed by whether ETF inflows and Coinbase premiums turn decisively positive.