Chicago wheat falls after profit-taking and Black Sea risks

The market’s near-term direction still hinges on whether the latest military escalation translates into more export damage or whether peace talks regain traction. Ukraine said it struck targets at Russia’s Novorossiysk port, including a naval base and oil-loading terminal, with traders also circulating unconfirmed reports that grain infrastructure may have been hit.

That helped keep a geopolitical premium in prices even as the Kremlin said it hopes U.S.-mediated talks will resume soon and that Abu Dhabi is a preferred venue. For investors, that leaves wheat vulnerable to sharp swings: any sign of supply-chain damage can trigger a fast rally, but periods of reduced risk appetite and profit-taking can unwind those gains just as quickly.

Corn and soybeans also eased, with CBOT corn down 5-3/4 cents at $5.27-3/4 a bushel and soybeans off 6-3/4 cents at $13.09-1/2. Both markets had climbed to roughly three-year highs last week on worries about U.S. crop yields and Black Sea disruptions, and attention is now shifting to Friday’s USDA supply-and-demand report for a clearer read on weather damage in the Midwest.

The report will matter not just for grain merchants but also for processors, exporters and food producers exposed to higher input costs. USDA data on Tuesday showed 56% of the U.S. corn crop was rated good to excellent, unchanged from analyst expectations, while soybeans held at 58% good to excellent, better than expected and supportive for the broader oilseed market.

Demand side support remains in place for soybeans after the USDA said exporters sold 340,000 metric tons to China for 2026/27 delivery and another 100,000 tons to unknown destinations. Energy prices are adding another layer of support, with Brent crude above $100 a barrel, a level that can lift biofuel-linked demand for corn and soybeans.