Costco Holds at $903 Before Sept. 24 Earnings

That matters because Costco is entering earnings with a tougher margin backdrop than the top-line numbers alone suggest. Shemesh said rising fuel and transportation costs could pressure profit in the core retail business, even as tariff refunds from the U.S. government may offset some of that hit. For a retailer whose valuation depends heavily on consistency rather than big earnings beats, the mix of steady sales growth and margin noise is likely to define the market reaction.

Wall Street expects Costco to report fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $94.85 billion, up 10% from a year earlier, with adjusted earnings per share of $6.55, according to consensus estimates. Costco already said August sales and fiscal fourth-quarter comparable sales were strong, with full-year net sales rising 10% to $297.3 billion and comparable sales up 7.2% excluding gas and foreign exchange. That leaves investors focused less on whether the company grew and more on how much of that growth converted into profit.

The debate around the stock is whether Costco’s scale, membership model and traffic resilience can keep supporting premium multiples even as operating costs normalize upward. Bulls point to stable renewal economics, broad-based consumer trade-down demand and the company’s ability to pass through inflation without losing members. Bears see limited room for multiple expansion when earnings growth is increasingly dependent on volume and tariff-related offsets rather than cleaner margin leverage.

RBC trimmed its full-year revenue growth view to 11% from 12%, still slightly above the market’s 10% consensus, but said it does not expect the print to shift sentiment much. That is a useful read-through for investors: Costco remains one of retail’s highest-quality names, but with the stock still near a rich valuation, even a good report may not be enough to re-rate it higher without evidence that margins are holding up as sales momentum continues.

What to watch on Sept. 24 is whether management can show that traffic, membership income and ancillary businesses are absorbing the cost headwinds, or whether fuel, freight and foreign exchange keep eating into the earnings conversion that has long underpinned Costco’s premium.