Ford trucks face tariff pressure in US-Canada deal
Ford’s biggest trucks have become a flashpoint in the US-Canada trade fight because the proposed tariff relief still leaves key parts, steel and cross-border supply chains exposed, threatening margins across North American automakers even if Washington and Ottawa cut the headline duty rate.
The tentative deal would reduce auto tariffs to 15% from 25%, but it would not exempt Canadian and Mexican components, while steel would still face a 25% tariff on exports up to four million tonnes and a 50% duty beyond that threshold. That matters because pickups and large SUVs rely on tightly integrated assembly lines and parts flows across the border, so even a lower tariff rate can still land as a direct cost hit for manufacturers already working with thin trade-policy visibility.
Investors care because the tariff structure strikes at the most profitable part of the Detroit automakers’ business. Ford’s full-size pickups, including the F-350, and GM’s large-truck portfolio have been among the company’s margin engines, but the new levies risk raising costs just as companies need cash to fund electric-vehicle programs and software spending.
The stock market has already been signaling how fragile the setup is. Ford shares, after swinging between $11.99 and $17.25 over the past year, closed at $14.41 on Aug. 21, with its 50-day moving average near $14.03 and RSI readings around 51, suggesting the stock has steadied but not escaped tariff risk. GM ended at $87.93, well above its 50-day average of $82.14, while Stellantis, which has been under far heavier pressure, closed at just $5.41 and remains below its 200-day moving average of $8.06.
The broader economic issue is that the tariff dispute lands on an auto industry already wrestling with slower global demand, higher financing costs and more intense competition from Chinese manufacturers in EV batteries and components. Reuters sentiment around the tariff package was negative, and industry experts say even a 15% tariff could still erode profitability enough to accelerate plant-level restructuring and sourcing changes.
For investors, the key question is whether any deal truly stabilizes North American production or simply formalizes a more expensive version of the same fragmented supply chain. The next market catalyst is likely to be further negotiations over exemptions, especially for parts, steel and USMCA-linked components, which will determine whether Detroit’s truck profits hold up or get squeezed further.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. automakers | ▲Smaller tariff shock than 25% | ▼Still face higher input costs |
| Canadian and Mexican suppliers | ▲Some deal clarity | ▼No exemption for components |
| Steel exporters | ▲Partial access up to quota | ▼50% duty above 4 million tonnes |
| Ford, GM, Stellantis shareholders | ▲Temporary relief hopes | ▼Margin pressure and valuation risk |