Global equities hold near highs as leadership narrows

The message for investors is straightforward: the uptrend remains intact, but it is increasingly reliant on a small group of large-cap leaders and on continued macro calm. SPY’s 14-day RSI at 47.5 and QQQ’s at 42.1 suggest neither market is overbought, yet the indicators also show momentum has cooled from earlier surges. FEZ’s RSI of 36.1 and the absence of a decisive breakout above the upper Bollinger Band point to a European market that is recovering, but not yet in full-risk-on mode. In other words, buyers are present, but conviction is uneven.

For the Dow and the FTSE MIB, that still helps the relative case for industrials, banks and defensives that can attract flows when investors want exposure without paying the highest valuations in U.S. growth stocks. For the Nasdaq 100, the support from QQQ above its long-term trendline keeps the AI and megacap complex in control for now, but the index’s recent slide from its July peak shows how dependent the rally remains on earnings delivery and rate expectations.

Adalytica’s S&P 500 trade signal snapshot was neutral at 34, with awareness also neutral at 52, underscoring that the market is not in an extended panic or euphoria phase. The U.S. dollar signal was firmer over the past week, and that can act as a headwind for multinational earnings and emerging-market risk appetite if it persists. A stronger dollar and fading momentum would matter most for export-heavy European stocks and for the more valuation-sensitive corners of U.S. tech.

The central narrative across the FTSE MIB, Euro STOXX 50, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 is therefore one of selective resilience: the market is still climbing, but the burden of proof has shifted to earnings, margins and central-bank timing. If the next leg higher comes, it is likely to be led by the same large-cap franchises now holding the line. If that support breaks, the indices most exposed to premium valuations and cyclical earnings will be the first to feel it.