Ibex 35 rises as Fed and Nvidia drive stocks

The Ibex’s move is more than a headline bounce. The index has climbed from 19,811 earlier in the week and is now pressing against the top end of its recent range, with its 50-day moving average around 19,650 and the 200-day average near 18,048. That leaves the Spanish market comfortably above both trend markers, a sign that buyers remain in control even as momentum cools from earlier highs. Its relative strength index at 54.2 also points to a market that is firm but not yet stretched.

The bigger macro backdrop is still the Federal Reserve. Fed funds expectations point to a policy rate of about 3.625% in August, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.7%. That is not a loose-money environment, but it is a market that still expects the Fed to ease eventually. For European stocks, especially banks and exporters, that matters because the path of U.S. rates influences global borrowing costs, currency moves and risk sentiment far beyond Wall Street.

Investors are also watching Nvidia for a different reason: it has become a proxy for the health of the AI capital-spending cycle. The company’s shares were still trading above both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, even after recent volatility, and the latest move lower has not broken the broader uptrend. When Nvidia attracts financing partners for a huge infrastructure package, the message to markets is simple — AI is moving from a pure technology story to a financing story, one that could support chip demand, data-center buildout and related supply chains for years.

For Spain, the direct read-through is less about Nvidia itself and more about risk appetite. A market like the Ibex tends to benefit when investors rotate toward cyclical and value-heavy shares, particularly financials, industrials and large international firms. If the Fed turns more dovish and AI enthusiasm continues to spread, that combination can keep money flowing into equities even after a strong run.

The risk, of course, is that markets are leaning on two hopes at once: lower rates and uninterrupted AI spending. If the Fed disappoints or AI capital spending slows, the easy gains in momentum-sensitive markets could fade quickly. But for long-term investors, the message from the Ibex’s move is encouraging: Europe is still participating in a global equity advance driven by liquidity expectations and a powerful technology investment cycle.

For patient investors, that makes the Ibex worth keeping on the watchlist rather than chasing aggressively. The best long-term returns usually come from buying quality businesses and index exposure when markets are quietly climbing, not when euphoria is obvious.