Italy Labor Minister Cites Drop in Emigration

Marina Calderone said Italy has reached a record 24.3 million employed and has added more than 1.3 million workers since the start of the government’s term, arguing that the labor market is becoming more attractive and stable. She pointed to a shift in job quality, saying there are nearly three permanent contracts created for every temporary one lost, and that more than 16 million workers now hold open-ended contracts.

But the headline drop in departures from 2025 does not tell the whole story. Istat itself says the 22.7% fall to 109,000 espatri should be read in light of an “exceptional” 2024, when stricter registration rules triggered a spike in AIRE enrollments and inflated the comparison base.

The government tightened penalties in the 2024 budget law, including fines of up to 1,000 euros a year for Italians living abroad more than 12 months without registering or updating their records. That prompted many long-term expatriates to regularize their status, creating what demographers describe as a statistical bulge rather than a clean break in outward migration.

For investors, the distinction matters because Italy’s labor supply is tightly linked to domestic demand, wage pressure and long-term productivity. If departures are genuinely slowing, that would support consumption and ease the erosion of human capital; if the data mainly reflect a registration correction, the underlying competitiveness problem remains unresolved.

The Teha Group and Philip Morris Italia study released at the forum underlines the stakes. It said 141,000 Italians moved abroad in 2024, often with a degree, and that low pay relative to living costs, weak trust in institutions and limited career paths remain the main push factors for companies surveyed.

The report also warned that, without structural changes, Italy could lose as many as 760,000 graduates by 2035, with up to 307 billion euros in potential GDP left on the table. Its prescription includes higher pay, more permanent jobs, a talent visa, tighter links between universities and firms, and more support for startups and deep-tech companies.

The near-term market implication is limited, but the macro message is clear: Italy is still fighting a brain-drain problem, and the labor ministry’s optimism will be judged less by one year’s migration print than by whether wages, hiring quality and productivity improve enough to keep young workers at home.