Nvidia earnings, oil gains, and bond yields rise

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.74%, underscoring the market’s uneasy backdrop. Higher yields can weigh on rate-sensitive stocks and make it harder for growth names to justify rich valuations, especially if geopolitical risk keeps oil and inflation expectations bid.

Nvidia is the other key catalyst. The stock closed at $208.48 on Monday, just above its 50-day moving average of $207.65 and below its 200-day average of $195.17, while RSI readings cooled to 46.0 after the shares had recovered sharply earlier this month. That leaves traders watching whether the chipmaker can deliver numbers strong enough to reignite semis and the broader Nasdaq complex.

The stock’s recent pullback comes even as Adalytica’s NVIDIA Earnings Sentiment sits at 57, a neutral reading, with awareness at 50, suggesting attention is high but conviction is not extreme heading into the print. For investors, that means the bar is now set not just on revenue and guidance, but on whether management can keep AI demand, margins and supply-chain execution intact.

The broader market has turned more defensive at the same time. SPY closed at $763.47 and Adalytica’s S&P 500 Trade Signals show sentiment at 17, labeled fear, while awareness remains elevated at 75, reflecting a market that is still engaged but increasingly cautious. That combination points to a session where geopolitics, rates and one megacap earnings report all compete for control of risk appetite.

For now, the main question is whether oil’s climb becomes a longer-lasting inflation shock or just another burst of geopolitical volatility. Nvidia’s report, along with any fresh commentary on AI spending and supply constraints, is likely to decide whether investors buy the dip in semiconductors or keep rotating toward energy and other inflation hedges.