Nvidia Revenue Outlook and Amazon GPU Deal
Nvidia’s pledge that revenue can still grow 70% in fiscal 2028 has become the market’s central test of whether the AI boom is entering a second, much larger phase — and whether customers like Amazon are willing to keep spending at a pace that justifies it.
The chipmaker told investors it sees sales rising far faster than Wall Street’s 44% estimate, even as the stock has been volatile and the broader AI trade has started to face questions about durability. The forecast matters because it implies Nvidia expects demand for its data-center chips to remain constrained by supply rather than by appetite, with revenue growth increasingly tied to hyperscalers’ buildout plans, software stack adoption and the speed at which AI infrastructure gets deployed.
Amazon’s agreement to buy 2 million Nvidia GPUs is the most concrete support for that outlook. It points to continuing capital spending from one of the world’s biggest cloud buyers and reinforces the idea that AI infrastructure is still in an expansion phase, not a slowdown. For Nvidia, the deal helps de-risk the longer-term revenue path. For Amazon, it is another sign that AWS must keep investing heavily to defend market share in cloud and AI services.
The numbers in Nvidia’s filings also show how aggressive that demand picture has become. The company said it had lifted supply and capacity commitments to $279 billion as of July 26 from $119 billion the prior quarter, underscoring how much future business it is trying to lock in. Nvidia also said one direct customer accounted for 16% of second-quarter revenue, highlighting how concentrated the customer base remains even as the AI market broadens.
Investors are focusing on whether that concentration cuts both ways. If Amazon and other hyperscalers keep ordering at scale, Nvidia’s earnings power can keep outrunning expectations. If those customers slow procurement or stretch deployments, the stock’s valuation — already priced for heavy AI growth — could compress quickly.
The market reaction suggests traders are still willing to believe the story, at least for now. Nvidia shares have been recovering and were last near $230.36, above the 50-day moving average of $210.57 and the 200-day moving average of $196.53, while RSI readings and MACD trends point to improving momentum after earlier weakness. Nvidia’s Adalytica earnings sentiment snapshot is at “Extreme Greed,” reflecting how strongly investors are leaning into the company’s AI narrative.
The bigger question is whether the forecast is realistic or merely aspirational. With hyperscalers still spending, AWS growth running at a strong clip and Nvidia’s order book swollen, the near-term evidence supports management’s confidence. The next test will come in whether those commitments turn into deliveries fast enough to keep the 2028 growth path intact, and whether customers keep treating AI infrastructure as a priority even if macro conditions tighten.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Nvidia | ▲Longer revenue runway | ▼Higher expectations |
| Amazon | ▲More AI compute capacity | ▼Heavier capex burden |
| AI chip suppliers | ▲Demand lift from hyperscaler spending | ▼Competitive pressure from Nvidia |
| Skeptical investors | ▲Potential entry point if growth holds | ▼Risk of valuation compression |