Paraguay Soy Crop Seen Above 12 Million Tons

Still, the crop is not yet made. Farmers say recent low temperatures are slowing germination and could delay the staggered planting schedule, with most field work expected to finish between Oct. 10 and Oct. 15. Soil moisture is currently adequate, but the next few weeks will be decisive, with producers saying steady rains would support the crop while drought remains the biggest risk.

For investors and commodity traders, the larger concern is not just volume but margins. Héctor Cristaldo, who heads the Unión de Gremios de la Producción, said the guaraní has strengthened about 23% against the dollar, eroding the peso-equivalent returns farmers receive on exports and squeezing competitiveness across soybeans, corn, rice, sesame, chia, fruit and vegetables.

That currency pressure comes at a sensitive moment for South American agriculture, where export prices, weather and exchange rates can shift producer cash flow quickly. Soy futures-linked funds such as the SOYB ETF were trading near $28.12 on Monday, while corn proxy CORN closed at $20.27 and the broader DBA agriculture fund at $28.68, underscoring continued investor interest in grain markets as harvest expectations and currency moves collide.

The soy outlook will sharpen as more acreage is planted and weather forecasts firm, while traders will also watch global demand and exchange rates to see whether Paraguay’s higher output translates into stronger export earnings or is partly offset by the stronger local currency.