Poland Central Bank Warns Inflation Could Top Target

That warning arrives at an awkward moment for the Polish economy. GDP grew 3.9% in the second quarter, a pace that supports corporate activity and household incomes, but also adds demand-side pressure that can feed through into prices. At the same time, Glapiński said consumer growth has clearly slowed, suggesting the balance between stronger activity and softer consumption is becoming more fragile. For the central bank, that mix argues against any rush to ease policy.

The RPP kept the benchmark rate at 3.75% after its two-day meeting, and Glapiński’s remarks suggest the bar for cuts remains high if inflation drifts above target again. The market will read that as a confirmation that real rates are likely to stay restrictive longer, which is supportive for the zloty but a headwind for rate-sensitive sectors such as housing, utilities and leveraged domestic borrowers.

Investors should also pay attention to the second-order effects. If energy prices keep driving the inflation print, Polish bonds may remain vulnerable to repricing as traders push back expectations for easing. That helps explain why inflation-protection themes are regaining attention across Europe: the problem is not just Poland’s CPI number, but the risk that imported commodity shocks force central banks to keep policy tight even when growth looks solid.

The message from Warsaw is straightforward: Poland is not in a crisis, but it is back in the zone where inflation can surprise to the upside and shape markets. For investors, that means staying selective on domestic cyclicals, favoring exporters and businesses with pricing power, and respecting the possibility that the next move in rates is still a long way off.