Poland GDP Tops 4 Trillion Zloty in Q2

The latest reading suggests domestic demand has held up better than feared. For investors, that is important for several reasons: it supports the case for Polish equities and local-currency assets, it gives the złoty some fundamental backing, and it reduces the odds that growth worries will force a more aggressive policy response from the central bank. On the margin, a better-than-estimated print also helps reassure markets that Poland’s expansion is not stalling just as Europe continues to grow unevenly.

At the same time, the broader picture is more complicated. The statistical office separately estimated that the economic cost of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine between 2022 and 2025 reached 490.1 billion zloty, or about 3.5% of cumulative GDP over the period. Households absorbed the biggest hit, with losses estimated at 292.1 billion zloty, followed by companies at 126 billion zloty and the public sector at 72 billion zloty. That matters because it shows Poland’s growth has come despite a sizable drag from war-related labor, price and budget effects rather than because those effects have disappeared.

Construction was singled out as one of the hardest-hit industries, with gross value added losses estimated at 120.9 billion zloty. Statisticians said the war reduced the number of Ukrainian men registered for temporary residence in Poland, while higher prices for metals, aggregates, glass, cement, asphalt, steel and plastics added to costs. For investors, that keeps pressure on margin-sensitive sectors even as the broader economy expands.

The stronger GDP reading leaves Poland in a favorable position relative to much of Europe, but the coming quarters will show whether growth can stay near this pace once war-related distortions, labor shortages and cost pressures are fully absorbed.