Russia Banks Raise Deposit Rates Again

That is a meaningful shift for the economy. Higher deposit rates raise banks’ funding costs, which can eventually feed into pricier consumer loans and slower credit growth. They also show that banks are still scrambling to hold on to liquidity at a time when depositors are shifting money out of cash and into alternatives. In other words, the central bank may have paused, but the market is still repricing for a world of elevated nominal rates.

For investors, the message is that bank margins, liability management and deposit mix are now as important as headline policy rates. The banks with stronger franchises and better deposit bases can defend funding more efficiently, while those chasing balances through promotional products risk compressing spreads. That is why the latest round of increases by VTB, Sberbank and T-Bank matters: it is not a broad policy reset, but a competitive move to lock in funding before rates begin to fall again.

The evidence points to a fragmented market rather than a coordinated rerating. Between June 25 and Sept. 10, 96 banks raised deposit rates, 93 cut them and 56 left terms unchanged, according to Banki.ru. The strongest competition has been in six-month deposits, where more banks lifted than reduced rates and the average climbed to 11.1% from 11.0%. Shorter and longer maturities have been more uneven, while savings accounts have moved back and forth as banks test demand.

The top names are already positioning for the next phase. VTB lifted rates on longer tenors by as much as 2.4 percentage points, arguing that short deposits and marketing offers will fall fastest once the cycle turns. Sberbank raised yields on its “Best %” product to 13.5% for six- and seven-month terms, while T-Bank nudged up two- and three-month deposit rates to 12.3%. That is a clear sign that the largest lenders are not waiting for the central bank to cut again before trying to defend their funding base.

For savers, this is still a favorable window, but it may not last. Banks are openly signaling that once easing resumes, short-term rates will be the first to drop. For the sector, the near-term squeeze is simple: high deposit costs protect liquidity, but they also put pressure on profitability unless loan growth and asset yields stay strong enough to offset them.

The investable takeaway is straightforward. The current phase favors banks with large retail franchises, disciplined pricing and enough balance-sheet strength to avoid overpaying for deposits. The losers are lenders that depend on hot money and promotional yields. If the central bank eventually resumes cutting, the biggest opportunity may be in banks that can reprice liabilities down fastest while preserving deposit market share.