Russia-Ukraine War Grinds On as 10-Year Yield Hits 4.75%

That backdrop is already showing up in markets. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to about 4.75%, while high-yield credit spreads remain near 2.88%, signaling a market that is not in crisis mode but is still demanding compensation for geopolitical risk. The dollar, meanwhile, is flashing extreme greed on Adalytica’s trade signals, with sentiment at 100 and awareness at 95, a reminder that periods of renewed conflict still tend to push capital toward the world’s reserve currency.

The investable message is clear: the market underestimates how durable the defense-capex cycle can be when war stops being a headline and becomes a permanent budget line. In Europe, that supports names tied to munitions, air defense, drones, radar, electronic warfare and military logistics. In the U.S., it keeps pressure on Washington and allies to sustain procurement, training and replenishment spending well into the next political cycle.

That helps explain why defense shares have stayed resilient even as broader risk appetite has wobbled. BAE Systems and Northrop-style suppliers are not trading simply on earnings; they are being repriced as infrastructure for a more militarized Europe. Uranium-linked exposure through the NLR ETF remains part of the same macro trade as nuclear safety and energy security stay in focus around the conflict zone.

The broader point is that a strategic stalemate is not a neutral outcome. It is a recurring catalyst for weapons orders, supply-chain reconfiguration, higher sovereign borrowing and persistent currency volatility. If Budanov is right, the war is no longer about a quick territorial outcome — it is about who can finance and industrialize endurance the longest.

For investors, that means positioning for the long cycle, not the next ceasefire headline. Defense, missile defense, drone-enabling technology and energy-security plays still look like the asymmetric winners, while European cyclicals, import-sensitive sectors and any assets dependent on a fast normalization of the region remain vulnerable.