Societe Generale Sees GBP/USD at 1.33 by 2027

The pound’s price action has been uneven even before the forecast. After rising to 1.37 in February, GBP/USD slid to 1.32 in March before recovering to the mid-1.30s, leaving traders focused on whether the latest bounce reflects a durable shift or just a pause in a broader soft patch.

Adalytica’s British pound trade signals show sentiment at 98, labeled “Extreme Greed,” while awareness remains at 20 and labeled “Fear,” a combination that points to crowded bullish positioning even as underlying conviction looks fragile. That divergence matters to currency investors because it can leave the pound vulnerable if macro data or central bank messaging turns less supportive.

The dollar side of the cross is not weak enough to make a sterling recovery easy. Adalytica’s U.S. dollar snapshot shows sentiment at 63, neutral, with awareness at 48, also neutral, while the greenback’s 30-day change sits at 60, suggesting the dollar still has enough momentum to keep pressure on GBP/USD.

The bigger economic story is that sterling is being judged less on short-term technical strength than on the outlook for transatlantic policy and growth. If U.S. yields stay firm and the Federal Reserve remains less willing to cut than the Bank of England, the pound’s carry appeal may stay limited, making SocGen’s 1.33 target look plausible.

For markets, that puts UK assets in focus too. A weaker pound can support exporters and multinational earnings, but it also raises imported inflation risk and can complicate the Bank of England’s rate path, while dollar strength tends to weigh on emerging-market currencies and global risk appetite more broadly.

Traders will now watch the next run of UK growth, inflation and labor data, along with Fed and BoE guidance, for signs of whether sterling can hold above 1.35 or starts drifting toward the 1.33 area SocGen sees by early 2027.