SPY, QQQ Rebound to Fresh Highs

That matters because the current tape is not being driven by a broad economic boom so much as by conviction that the secular winners still have room to run. The 50-day moving averages for both funds have turned back up — SPY at 747.65 and QQQ at 713.29 — while each sits well above its 200-day moving average, a sign the longer-term trend remains intact. QQQ’s RSI reading of 63.4 and SPY’s 75.1 show momentum has reaccelerated, even as both funds are pressing into the upper end of their Bollinger Bands. In plain English: this is what a powerful trend looks like when investors decide the risk of being underinvested is greater than the risk of paying up.

For investors, the bigger takeaway is not just that the megacap growth trade is alive. It is that the market continues to reward exposure to compute, AI infrastructure, software, semiconductors and platform businesses that can convert capital spending into operating leverage. When index-level strength is this persistent, it tends to pull assets, flows and corporate spending toward the same narrow set of beneficiaries. That creates a feedback loop: strong prices support sentiment, sentiment supports multiples, and multiples help finance the next round of capex and innovation.

The danger for bears is that bubbles are rarely obvious until the liquidity or earnings backdrop changes. Right now, neither SPY nor QQQ is flashing the kind of broad internal deterioration that would justify an aggressive call for a regime break. Instead, the technical setup says the market has absorbed a violent correction and resumed its climb. That is often how the best bull markets behave — they do not wait for skeptics to feel comfortable.

My thesis is that the market still underestimates how long the AI and infrastructure cycle can remain self-reinforcing. The best way to play that is not to try to nail a perfect top, but to own the toll roads of the theme: broad index exposure through SPY and QQQ, plus selective allocations to the companies building the underlying compute stack. If this really is a bubble, the more expensive mistake may be standing aside and waiting for a collapse that never arrives in time.