Sweden election exit polls show slim center-left lead

For investors, the immediate issue is not just who governs, but how stable that government can be. A narrow mandate in a highly fragmented parliament can slow legislation on taxes, spending, housing and energy, while limiting the scope for major policy swings that could matter for Swedish equities, the krona and domestic bond yields.

The Social Democrats were projected at 28.4%, down from 30.3% in 2022, while the Sweden Democrats were seen at 17.2% versus 20.5% in the last election. The Liberals were hovering near the 4% threshold needed to enter parliament, a factor that could still affect coalition math as votes are counted.

The result would mark a setback for the anti-immigration right at a time when European politics remains volatile, but it would not deliver a clean governing mandate. Markets are likely to focus on whether Andersson can assemble a workable majority and whether coalition bargaining forces policy moderation rather than a sharper leftward turn.

EWD, the iShares MSCI Sweden ETF, was trading around $51.90 in the latest session and sits above its 200-day moving average, but recent technical readings show momentum has cooled, with the 50-day average near $52.00 and RSI readings in the mid-30s. The next catalyst is the official count, which will determine whether the exit polls hold and how much political risk premium investors assign to Sweden assets.