Thailand rice exporters face price competition

The pressure is most visible in white rice and jasmine rice, where Thai premiums are widening. Exporters say Thai 5% white rice is fetching about $450 to $455 a ton, above Vietnam’s $425 to $430, Pakistan’s $410 to $415 and India’s $365 to $370, while Thai jasmine rice is around $1,150 a ton versus about $820 for Cambodian jasmine.

Those gaps are reshaping trade flows. Thai exporters say China has been buying more from Pakistan, and talks over a government-to-government sale of 60,000 tons of Thai 5% white rice to China’s COFCO could stall if the price tops $450 a ton. Thailand shipped just 170,000 tons to China in the first seven months of the year, down 58% from a year earlier, while Cambodian jasmine rice has also been taking share as buyers see it as similar quality at a much lower price.

Still, Thailand has one advantage that is keeping some orders coming: reliability. Importers in the Philippines and Malaysia are booking ahead into 2027 as they worry about supply disruptions, super El Nino risks and the possibility that some exporters will miss deliveries if domestic costs stay high.

That leaves the market split between price and security. For investors in Thai agribusiness, shipping and food exporters, the key near-term catalyst is whether year-end tender activity can offset lost market share in China and other price-sensitive destinations. The next read-through will come from fresh government and private-sector export contracts before the holiday buying season peaks.