Turkey Cotton Output Falls, Imports Rise

The problem is not just lower output, but the economics behind it. Farmers are being pushed out by high production costs, inflation that has outpaced state support, and alternative crops that now offer better returns. Kocagöz said support payments have lagged far behind inflation and argued that, on average yields of 400 kilograms per decare, subsidies should be around 4,000 lira per decare to preserve planting. Without that kind of incentive, acreage keeps shrinking and the import bill rises.

Söke, one of Turkey’s most important cotton regions, shows how quickly the shift is accelerating. Cotton acreage there has dropped to about 130,000 decares from 325,000 decares, a decline of roughly 60%, according to Söke Ziraat Odası head Mustafa Tanyeri. He said the cost of producing seed cotton has climbed to about 47 lira a kilogram, while market prices remain at 35-37 lira, leaving growers below break-even. His warning that prices need to hold above 50 lira for production to remain viable underscores how fragile planting decisions have become.

For investors, the stake extends beyond agriculture. A sustained cotton shortage raises input costs for Turkish spinners, yarn makers, textile mills and apparel exporters, compressing margins unless higher costs can be passed through. It also increases exposure to import prices and foreign exchange volatility at a time when inflation remains elevated. The longer the deficit persists, the more Turkey risks ceding competitiveness to lower-cost producers and weakening the domestic industrial chain from gin to garment.

There is also a regional dimension. If Turkey has to rely more heavily on imported cotton, it becomes more exposed to global supply swings, while countries with stronger harvest prospects, such as Greece, could benefit from tighter regional trade flows. By contrast, Turkish farmers and processors face the risk that another season of weak prices and poor support will accelerate crop switching out of cotton entirely.

The next test will be whether Ankara responds with higher subsidies, a clearer production target and pricing support that makes cotton competitive again. Without that, the market is likely to keep moving in one direction: less domestic cotton, more imports and a more fragile textile base.