Ukraine Central Bank Sees Inflation Under 10%

For investors, the message is twofold. First, the central bank is not preparing the market for a broad inflation breakout, which helps anchor expectations for the hryvnia, local rates and Ukrainian sovereign risk. Second, the fact that logistics costs account for about 8% of goods prices underscores where the real margin pressure is building: not in one-off price spikes, but in the persistent wartime frictions that squeeze industrial cash flow, delay recovery and raise working-capital needs.

Pyshnyi’s comments also show policymakers are trying to get ahead of the damage with targeted relief. The NBU has already rolled out two packages of regulatory easing for firms hit by intensified attacks and is working on a third, including broader collateral use to support financing. At the same time, the bank is pushing with the government on war-risk insurance, a crucial piece of infrastructure if Ukraine wants private capital to keep flowing into factories, logistics and export businesses.

The economic read-through is important. If inflation stays below 10%, the central bank retains more room to preserve financial stability without slamming growth. If war-related costs keep rising but only feed through gradually, that favors companies with pricing power, hard-currency revenue or access to donor-backed finance, while leaving smaller domestic businesses more exposed to margin compression.

The October macro forecast update will be the next checkpoint. For now, the market should read Pyshnyi’s message as an attempt to separate wartime noise from a true inflation spiral: the shock is real, but the central bank does not think it is becoming unanchored.