Ukraine war strain lifts GLD near $398.47

Military chief Valerii Zaluzhny’s warning that Ukraine has exhausted its weapons resources matters economically because it points to higher dependence on foreign financing, arms shipments and industrial support. That increases the burden on the U.S. and European allies at a time when budgets are already stretched by inflation, high rates and other security commitments.

For investors, the implications are broader than the battlefield. A protracted war typically supports demand for defense stocks, helps keep energy and grain markets sensitive to supply shocks, and sustains safe-haven flows into assets such as gold and the dollar when escalation risks rise.

That pattern is visible in markets. Gold ETF GLD has climbed to about $398.47, near its recent highs, while the U.S. dollar fund UUP is holding around $28.07, reflecting continued demand for defensive positioning. GLD is trading well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and its relative strength index remains elevated, showing strong momentum behind the move.

Technical readings also suggest investors are still paying for protection. Adalytica’s Global Stability Sentiment gauge is at 93, labeled Extreme Greed, while the Gold Fear & Greed Index sits at 95, indicating persistent appetite for hedges even as the conflict drags on.

Russia is also keeping pressure on diplomatic channels, accusing Ukraine of trying to widen the war by drawing in Western powers and emphasizing that its own security interests must be recognized. The exchange makes a settlement look even less likely in the near term.

The immediate focus now shifts to whether Ukraine can secure additional weapons and political backing before the military balance deteriorates further, and whether Western capitals are willing to raise support again without widening their own domestic budget and political strain.