Ukraine war keeps havens bid, pressure on risk assets

Investors are watching the ripple effects across assets tied to risk sentiment. Adalytica’s Global Stability Sentiment gauge sits in “Extreme Fear” at 7, while its awareness reading is “Extreme Greed,” a combination that points to elevated market attention even as confidence collapses. Gold’s own fear-and-greed index has jumped to 100, or “Extreme Greed,” reflecting a rush toward safe-haven exposure as the geopolitical backdrop worsens.

That risk-off tone shows up in broad dollar strength as well, with the U.S. Dollar Index tracker UUP trading at 28.25, down only modestly from 28.50 earlier in the week but still above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The fund’s recent technical profile suggests investors have not abandoned the dollar as a hedge, even as the move has cooled from its March highs.

UK equities, by contrast, have held up better. The iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF, EWU, closed at 46.77, above both its 50-day average of 46.13 and its 200-day average of 44.41, suggesting the market is not pricing an immediate domestic shock from the conflict. Still, the ETF’s 65.8 RSI reading signals the recent rebound is getting stretched, leaving room for volatility if the war intensifies or sanctions broaden.

For markets, the bigger issue is not just the next attack, but the policy response. Further sanctions could tighten pressure on Russian energy revenues, disrupt commodity flows and reinforce demand for defensive assets, while renewed military aid to Ukraine would keep Europe’s fiscal and strategic commitments elevated. The next catalyst is any fresh Western sanction package or escalation around Kyiv, which could quickly spill back into currencies, gold and defense-linked equities.