U.S. CPI Seen Rising 0.3% in August

That matters because the Fed has been trying to balance cooling inflation against signs the economy is slowing. A 0.3% monthly CPI reading is not a shock by itself, but it would reinforce the view that progress back to the central bank’s 2% target remains uneven, especially if energy keeps feeding into broader household costs.

Gasoline prices rose 3.4% in August, according to Truflation, and were above $4 a gallon last month, reaching $4.10 in early September, nearly a dollar above year-earlier levels based on GasBuddy data cited by Reuters. Brent crude has also pushed back above $100 a barrel for the first time since July, underscoring how geopolitics and supply tightness can quickly leak into U.S. inflation readings.

The inflation setup is showing up in markets. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, TLT, has slipped to about $80.87, below its 50-day moving average of $82.58 and its 200-day average of $84.50, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, SPY, is holding near record territory at $764.29. That mix suggests investors are still pricing in resilient growth, but with less room for a dovish surprise from the Fed if the CPI print runs hot.

Truflation also said clothing prices likely helped temper the August increase as retailers leaned on back-to-school discounts and end-of-summer promotions, though those price cuts may prove temporary amid tariff and import-cost pressure. The Labor Department’s official CPI report due Friday will be the key test for whether the August pickup is mostly an energy story or the start of broader reacceleration.