Credibility study of US employment data using company layoffs announcements and peer data

Credibility study of US employment data using company layoffs announcements and peer data

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for publishing monthly employment reports that provide valuable insights into the state of the American economy. However, in recent months, concerns have been raised about the credibility of the data presented in these reports.

Normally there is a 3-4 month lag between companies making layoff announcements and reported employment figures. In the case of BLS numbers, this relation broke, but they also diverged from what DESTATIS shows for Germany, as an example. Major revisions and adjustments are also adding more to the concerns if US employment data is still trustworthy.

Despite all of these issues, the BLS still remains a major source of employment data for policymakers, economists, and investors gauging policy on interest rates and projecting inflation rates.

This case underlines the value of using alternative data sources, like announcements or company sentiment to get unbiased, leading indicators of the actual condition of the economy.