U.S. hotel leisure revenue seen above 2019

The projections are nominal and not adjusted for inflation, which means the industry has not fully recovered in real terms. Even so, the pattern is economically important. Leisure travel has been the stronger revenue engine as households have continued to prioritize trips, helped by a reopening of borders, accumulated savings and a shift toward experiences. By contrast, corporate travel remains constrained by remote work policies, tighter expense controls and a slower return of large events.

The split is stark across U.S. markets. AHLA said 80% of the top 50 U.S. hotel markets are expected to see leisure revenue surpass 2019, but only 40% are likely to do so for business travel. That leaves urban hotels, conference-heavy destinations and convention hubs still trying to catch up, with implications for room rates, occupancy and staffing needs.

For investors, the message is that the hotel recovery is real but not evenly priced across the sector. Companies with stronger exposure to resort, leisure and drive-to markets are better positioned to sustain revenue gains, while owners and operators with heavier reliance on corporate transient demand face a slower normalization. Marriott International, Hilton and Booking Holdings all remain tied to the broader travel cycle, but the strongest near-term economics still appear to favor leisure-led demand.

The labor picture also shows how demand is translating into operating pressure. AHLA said more than 115,000 hotel jobs are open nationwide, with 81% of hotels raising wages, 64% offering more flexible hours and 35% expanding benefits to attract workers. That is a sign of healthier demand, but it also points to higher operating costs that can limit margin recovery, especially for hotels still rebuilding volume rather than pricing power.

AHLA said it is pressing to restore meetings, conferences and group travel in slower-recovering markets, and has launched a campaign in 14 cities to broaden awareness of hotel careers. The next test for the sector will be whether business travel and group demand can catch up enough to make the recovery durable — and whether that happens before inflation and labor costs erode more of the gains already made by leisure travel.