XRP Whales Cut Exchange Balances as Bitcoin Shorts Build

CryptoQuant data showed XRP whales accounted for about 77% of seven-day exchange outflows, compared with 22.8% for retail participants. On Binance, large holders made up roughly 81% of outflows, while retail accounted for 18.7%.

Reported Binance XRP reserves fell from about 2.704 billion tokens on Sept. 26 to 2.631 billion on Oct. 4, while Upbit reserves slipped from roughly 6.446 billion on Sept. 11 to 6.415 billion on Oct. 5. Combined, that was a drop of 104.7 million XRP, and CryptoQuant said Binance saw about 1.38 billion XRP in whale outflows over 30 days, a seven-month high.

But the read is not one-way bullish. Around the same time, 1.6 billion XRP flowed into Binance over 30 days, underscoring how exchange balances can move in both directions and why reserve declines do not automatically translate into sustained price support.

XRP’s price action is still the real test. The token has retreated from the $1.50-$1.52 area and is trading around $1.40, just below its 50-day moving average near $1.42-$1.43 and above the 200-day average near $1.28. Its daily RSI near 25 points to weak momentum, while a break below $1.40 could expose $1.33 and then $1.28.

Bitcoin’s signal is more overtly bearish. Lookonchain said four newly created Hyperliquid wallets deposited $1 million in USDC and opened 40x shorts on 148.49 BTC, worth about $12.5 million at the time, before bitcoin fell below $84,000.

That move came as more than $500 million in crypto long positions were liquidated, a reminder that high leverage can turn a small drop into a forced selloff. Bitcoin is now trading around $82,740, below its 50-day average near $80,807 and with RSI in the low 40s, leaving $81,950 as a closely watched downside pivot and $86,000-$87,000 as the first area to reclaim if buyers step back in.

For investors, the message is mixed but actionable: XRP’s whale-led outflows suggest accumulation or repositioning may be taking place off-exchange, but price confirmation is still missing; Bitcoin’s short positioning is a direct volatility trigger and keeps the market vulnerable to more liquidation-driven swings.

The next catalyst is whether XRP can hold $1.40 and whether bitcoin stabilizes above $81,950. If those levels fail, the outflow story in XRP and the bearish leverage story in BTC could both turn into deeper price weakness.