Alphabet, Fortum, Rheinmetall, Almonty on AI trade

Alphabet is the clearest reminder that AI leadership still requires massive capital spending. The shares ended at $338.50, below the 50-day moving average of $346.98, suggesting investors are still digesting the cost of staying competitive in AI even as the company remains far above its 200-day moving average of $336.38. For long-term investors, that matters because AI is not a cheap optionality story anymore; it is a capital-intensive race, and the companies that can keep funding it without damaging profitability are the ones most likely to compound over time.

That spending pressure is why utilities and power producers have become part of the AI trade. Fortum, the Finnish energy group, closed at 23.99 euros, well above its 50-day average of 20.29 and its 200-day average of 19.78, reflecting how investors are rewarding stable power supply in a world where data centers need more electricity. The stock’s recent surge also shows how quickly the market is pricing in the energy side of the AI buildout. In simple terms, every new server farm needs reliable power, and that turns electricity into an enabling asset, not just a defensive sector.

The defense side of the story is even more direct. Rheinmetall, the German arms maker, finished at 990.6 euros, below both its 50-day moving average of 1,093.85 and its 200-day average of 1,377.0. That weak price action does not change the bigger picture: Europe’s rearmament cycle is still underway, and defense contractors remain linked to multi-year procurement demand. For investors, the appeal is less about one quarter and more about durable backlogs, government support and the reality that geopolitical risk has become a structural feature of the market.

Then there are the raw materials. Almonty Industries sits in the most strategic part of the chain because tungsten is a critical input for defense and advanced industrial uses. In a world where governments want secure supply, a miner with exposure to strategic metals can become far more valuable than a generic commodity producer. The investment case here is straightforward: when supply chains are under strain, the market begins to price security of supply, not just tonnage.

The broader economic narrative is that geopolitics is no longer a background risk for investors — it is part of the earnings model. AI demands electricity and chips. Defense spending demands metals and manufacturing capacity. Strategic minerals tie both together. That is why the same portfolio conversation can include a megacap tech company, a European utility, a defense contractor and a specialty miner.

There are risks, of course. Alphabet still has to justify heavy AI investment with future cash generation. Fortum’s rally leaves it sensitive to valuation if power demand expectations cool. Rheinmetall can be volatile when the market questions how quickly defense budgets flow through. And Almonty’s opportunity depends on execution, financing and whether strategic-material demand remains elevated.

But for investors thinking in years, not weeks, this is exactly the sort of theme worth owning through a diversified portfolio. The best businesses in this environment are those that provide the essential tools of the next industrial cycle: compute, power, weapons systems and critical materials. That makes the theme compelling, but it also argues for patience and balance. The winners may not all move together, and not every stock in the chain will deserve the same price.

For long-term investors, the takeaway is clear: this is a powerful structural story, and it is still early enough to matter. Alphabet, Fortum, Rheinmetall and Almonty are all worth watching as the market continues to price the real-world costs of AI, security and supply-chain resilience.