Bitcoin Rises on ETF Inflows and Macro Trading

Spot bitcoin ETFs have nonetheless delivered the strongest inflows since 2025, helping the token extend its recovery and supporting the broader top-10 crypto ETP complex. Bitcoin traded around $84,939 on Oct. 3, after touching as high as $87,146.35 a day earlier, while holding well above its 50-day moving average of $78,562 and 200-day average of $71,426.

The price action shows the market still has room to run, but not enough conviction to break out cleanly. Bitcoin’s RSI of 65.7 suggests momentum remains firm without being stretched, while the price sits below the upper Bollinger Band near $89,190, leaving room for volatility if macro data or Fed pricing turns less supportive.

Crypto-linked equities are echoing that hesitation. Coinbase closed at $183 on Oct. 2, below its recent highs and only modestly above its 200-day average, while MicroStrategy ended at $160.01, off its late-September level even as bitcoin hovered near cycle highs. That split suggests investors are still treating the ETF bid as supportive, not transformative.

Adalytica’s Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index stands at 85, or “Greed,” but its awareness gauge remains at 24, labeled “Fear,” underscoring that enthusiasm has improved faster than participation. The dollar is also flashing weakness in Adalytica’s signals, which should, in theory, aid bitcoin, but the market is still waiting for that macro tailwind to overpower Treasury yields and other yield-bearing assets.

Citi’s upgraded 12-month bitcoin target of $113,000 adds another institutional vote of confidence, reinforcing the view that ETF access is broadening demand. For investors, the next catalyst is whether continued ETF inflows can keep absorbing supply while U.S. rates and growth data stop working against crypto risk.