Freeport-McMoRan Rises With Copper at Record High

Freeport is one of them. At a copper price of $6.51 a pound, management’s latest sensitivity work points to about $18.25 billion of EBITDA and $14 billion of operating cash flow in the 2027-2028 period. On those numbers, the stock would trade at about 6.8 times enterprise value to EBITDA and 11.2 times free cash flow, based on roughly $4.5 billion of capital spending. Those are undemanding multiples for a company with a global copper franchise and visible production growth ahead.

The valuation case is only part of the story. Freeport is also getting a lift from its own operating pipeline. Management expects output to rise from 3.1 billion pounds in 2026 to 4.1 billion pounds in 2028, helped by the restart of Grasberg in Indonesia after a 2025 incident. The company also has a low-cost leaching effort that could contribute 800 million pounds a year from existing stockpiles, plus brownfield expansion projects in the U.S. and elsewhere.

That makes the stock particularly interesting for long-term investors. Commodity prices can fall fast, and copper has already shown how quickly sentiment can swing when growth worries and a stronger dollar take center stage. But if you are building a portfolio for the next three to 10 years, the bigger question is not whether copper is perfectly priced this week. It is whether Freeport can turn a scarce strategic metal into steadily rising cash flow over time. Right now, the answer still looks like yes.

For investors, the real attraction is that you do not need to predict a permanent copper supercycle to do well here. You only need to believe that the world will keep demanding more copper, that new supply will remain difficult to bring online, and that Freeport can execute on the projects already in front of it. For patient shareholders, that is the kind of setup worth watching — and possibly buying on weakness.