Gold and silver’s steep retreat has turned this Dhanteras into a buying opportunity, and veteran investor Jim Rogers is telling buyers not to walk away from the metals even after a brutal correction.
Gold and Silver Pull Back Into Dhanteras
US Dollar
Rogers’ message matters because it lands at a moment when precious metals have already given back a large part of their gains. Gold is down about 30% from its peak and silver nearly 60%, according to the source material, a drawdown that has reset valuations and revived the old debate over whether the rally was overextended or merely interrupted. For Indian households, the timing is especially important: Dhanteras is one of the year’s most important precious-metals buying periods, and the festival often sets the tone for physical demand in the weeks that follow.
Sentiment Indicators
What makes Rogers’ view economically relevant is that it links the current price weakness to broader macro risks rather than to any deterioration in the metals’ long-term role as stores of value. He is pointing to rising US debt and the possibility of a severe US bear market, arguments that support demand for hard assets if growth slows, financial conditions tighten or confidence in paper assets weakens. That thesis is consistent with the latest macro backdrop: US 10-year Treasury yields are near 4.9%, keeping real financing costs elevated, while the dollar remains firm and market sentiment around the currency is in “extreme greed,” according to Adalytica’s trade signals. Gold sentiment is also elevated, at “greed,” suggesting the market has not abandoned the trade even after the correction.
For investors, the key question is whether this is a pause in a secular bull market or the start of a longer de-rating. On a technical basis, gold’s GLD exchange-traded fund was last around $369.36, below its 50-day moving average of $383.59 and well under its 200-day average of $410.37, with RSI at 44.1, a sign that the pullback has eased from deeply oversold levels but has not yet fully reversed. Silver looks weaker: SLV closed at $46.48, below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while RSI at 31.8 still points to fragile momentum. Mining shares have also struggled to stabilize, with GDX last near $86.49, just under its 50-day average and roughly in line with its 200-day trend.
That is why Rogers’ stance matters beyond a festive-season soundbite. If he is right, the correction is offering physical buyers and long-term investors a lower entry point into an asset class that remains tied to inflation fear, fiscal stress and geopolitical uncertainty. If the bear case wins, however, the recent slide could extend as speculative froth unwinds and investors rotate toward cash or higher-yielding assets while the dollar stays supported.
The immediate catalyst is Dhanteras demand, which could help absorb some of the supply overhang and test whether Indian buyers still treat weakness as a reason to accumulate. Beyond the festival, the more important drivers will be US rates, the path of the dollar and whether concerns about debt and equity-market fragility deepen enough to restore a stronger defensive bid for gold and silver.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Dhanteras buyers | ▲Lower entry prices | ▼Missed upside if prices rebound |
| Jim Rogers’ thesis | ▲Validation from lower prices | ▼Risk if metals keep falling |
| Gold and silver bulls | ▲Better accumulation levels | ▼Further drawdown risk |
| Dollar and cash holders | ▲Relative strength in the short term | ▼Potential loss if hard-asset demand returns |
