Gold, silver fall on stronger dollar and yields

On the MCX, October gold futures slipped 0.51% to about 1.54 lakh rupees, while silver contracts fell 0.70% to 2.40 lakh rupees. In overseas trade, US gold futures eased 0.30% to $4,513.76 an ounce. The move followed a small uptick in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.77% and a rise in the dollar index to 99.02 from 98.91 in the prior session.

The bigger market driver is the Federal Reserve path. Traders are still parsing whether policymakers could lift rates later this month, with CME FedWatch implying roughly a 50% chance of another increase. That uncertainty keeps the dollar supported and pins gold under pressure, even after the metal’s strong run earlier this year. The latest non-farm payrolls report is now the next key catalyst, because a stronger labor market would reinforce the case for tighter policy and likely keep pressure on bullion.

Silver remains the more volatile leg of the trade. The festival-related jump in demand had briefly broken the recent slide, but Friday’s pullback suggests that speculative buying is still vulnerable to shifts in rates and the dollar. For Indian buyers, the immediate implication is a more uneven pricing backdrop heading into the rest of the festive season, with bullion dealers likely to see demand oscillate rather than follow a straight-line rally.

For investors, the question is whether this is a pause in a broader precious-metals uptrend or the start of a deeper correction. The bullish case rests on persistent geopolitical risks, heavy government borrowing and lingering inflation concerns, all of which can keep safe-haven demand alive. The bearish case is that a sustained rise in yields and a firmer dollar will continue to cap gains, especially if US data stay resilient. For now, gold and silver remain hostage to the next move in Fed expectations.