MENA disaster readiness splits Gulf and Levant

North Africa posted the sharpest improvement of any region in the survey, gaining five points in its resilience score since 2023. Algeria and Egypt were cited among the main contributors, helped by wider internet access, stronger household preparedness and better financial capacity to cope with emergencies. That is economically meaningful: when families can access warnings, stock supplies and preserve some savings, they are less likely to cut consumption abruptly after a shock, which makes local demand and tax revenues more stable.

The Gulf, meanwhile, remains the region’s benchmark for preparedness. Kuwait scored 74 points, followed by Bahrain at 72, and Oman and the UAE at 70, all well above the global average of 57 in the regional report. Confidence in government readiness is also unusually high in the Gulf: 87% of Emiratis said their government is well prepared for disasters, the second-highest share among 133 countries in the index, while Bahrain scored 82%.

That combination of institutional confidence, higher incomes and better infrastructure lowers the probability that a climate or security event turns into a full-blown economic disruption. For investors, it supports the relative case for Gulf sovereigns, utilities, insurers, logistics operators and real estate assets exposed to the region’s long-term buildout, even as extreme heat and water scarcity remain structural risks.

The picture is far weaker in Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine, all of which fell below the global resilience average. Lebanon scored 48, Iraq 49 and Palestine 52, underscoring how weak public services and strained household balance sheets can magnify the cost of any shock. The survey found that 55% of households in Iraq, Jordan and Palestine would be unable to cover basic needs for a month if they lost income, a sign that even short-lived disruptions can quickly become consumption and credit events.

Trust is also part of the resilience gap. In Iraq, 59% said their government does not care about them at all, compared with a global average of 29%, and in Lebanon the figure was 56%. Those perceptions matter because disaster response depends on whether citizens act on warnings and whether governments can coordinate evacuations, relief and reconstruction without political resistance.

Lebanon stands out as the region’s clearest failure case. Only 39% of those affected said they received an advance warning, versus 80% globally, and just 14% said the government was well prepared for disasters. The country also recorded unusually high anxiety over drinking water and violent crime, two pressures that can deepen any emergency by pushing up health costs, discouraging investment and forcing households to spend more on private coping mechanisms.

The survey also highlights a broader policy problem: warnings do not reliably become action. Globally, 220 million people said they received no advance warning before being hit by a disaster over the past five years, even though 77% of them owned mobile phones. In lower-income countries, only 64% of those affected got warnings in advance, and fewer than half took protective action. By contrast, 71% did so in high-income countries. The more channels used, the better the response, with action rates rising from 37% for a single warning channel to 64% when alerts came through three.

For MENA policymakers, the implication is clear. Better resilience is not just about building seawalls or shelters. It depends on internet access, mobile alert systems, household savings, credible government communication and the ability to turn warnings into behavior before a crisis becomes a macroeconomic event.

For investors, the divide points to different risk premia across the region. Gulf economies look structurally better insulated, while the weaker performers face a higher probability that disasters translate into fiscal stress, import pressure, credit deterioration and slower recovery. The next test will be whether North Africa’s gains can be sustained and whether the least-prepared states can improve warning systems fast enough to narrow the gap.