SAP shares rose slightly after JPMorgan kept a Neutral rating and a 175-euro price target ahead of the software group’s third-quarter results, saying expectations have risen as the stock has already climbed.
SAP shares rise as JPMorgan keeps Neutral rating
That matters because SAP has been one of Europe’s most closely watched enterprise software names, and the bar for another upside surprise is now higher after a strong run. JPMorgan analyst Toby Ogg said in the note that the results are likely to come in broadly in line with expectations, which limits the case for a fresh re-rating before the earnings release.
The stock was up 0.3% at 183.40 euros in Xetra trading at 10:18 a.m., leaving it about 4.6% above JPMorgan’s target. SAP has fallen 10.5% since the start of 2026, even after more recent gains pushed the shares well above their 50-day moving average and back into a more constructive technical range. The stock’s RSI reading of 62.1 suggests momentum has improved, though it remains below overheated levels seen earlier this year.
For investors, the note reinforces a familiar setup: SAP is still supported by its long-term cloud and AI story, but near-term upside may depend on whether management can beat already elevated expectations on Oct. 21, when the company is due to report third-quarter results. A merely in-line quarter could keep the shares range-bound near current levels, while a stronger print would be needed to justify a move above JPMorgan’s target.
The call also highlights the broader tension in enterprise software: valuations are being tested as investors weigh sticky recurring revenue and AI-related growth against slower spending decisions and a more demanding market backdrop. That leaves SAP vulnerable to any disappointment, even as it continues to trade above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| SAP bulls | ▲More upside if 3Q beats | ▼Less room for a quick re-rating |
| JPMorgan / cautious investors | ▲Clearer risk control | ▼Missed upside if SAP surprises |
| Short-term traders | ▲Volatility into earnings | ▼Momentum fades if results are inline |
| Competitors in enterprise software | ▲Potential relative-share gains | ▼Lose if SAP re-accelerates on AI/cloud |
