Vietnam Durian Prices Rise on China Demand

The gap matters because most growers do not have enough premium fruit to benefit fully from the rally. While export buyers are paying up to secure supply, the average farm-gate price for standard durian is closer to 60,000-65,000 dong per kilogram, a level traders say can still generate profit but does not match the headline-grabbing price for select fruit.

The rally is being driven by a tighter supply backdrop and stronger demand from China, Vietnam’s dominant market. Much of Thailand’s harvest has already ended, leaving the Central Highlands — especially Dak Lak — as a key source just as Chinese buyers stock up ahead of National Day and the Mid-Autumn Festival.

That has pushed exporters and collectors to move quickly, and the market is now pricing not just by grade but by flesh quality. Light defects such as pale flesh or weaker sweetness are fetching 80,000-82,000 dong per kilogram for A-grade fruit, while heavily defective fruit is still trading at 50,000-55,000 dong and lower-grade produce at about 25,000 dong.

For investors in the broader agricultural export chain, the story is less about one fruit and more about how quality, weather and China demand are reshaping cash flows. Vietnam’s durian exports reached nearly $1.77 billion in the first seven months of 2026, up 47.1% from a year earlier, and accounted for about 37% of the country’s fruit and vegetable export value, with China taking 93.5% of the total.

That concentration cuts both ways. It supports prices when Chinese demand spikes, but it also leaves growers and exporters exposed to weather disruptions in Vietnam and to any sudden change in Chinese buying behavior or import requirements.

Dak Lak has harvested only about 40% of its crop so far, with the season expected to run into mid-to-late November. Total provincial output is forecast to rise more than 20% from last year to around 500,000 tons, but repeated rain is threatening flesh quality and could keep a lid on the share of fruit that reaches A-grade status.