AKTOR target raised to 15.30 euros by Euroxx

For investors, the key issue is not simply higher earnings, but the quality of those earnings. Construction remains the core, but the broker expects the profit mix to tilt toward assets with steadier revenue streams, helping reduce the cyclicality that has long pressured valuation multiples in the sector. That shift is central to Euroxx’s thesis because markets typically assign higher valuations to infrastructure owners and regulated or contracted assets than to project-based builders.

AKTOR’s order book gives the plan some near-term support. The company had 4.5 billion euros of construction backlog in the first half of 2026, with 67% already signed and the rest pending final execution, which Euroxx said should secure much of the group’s revenue through 2027-2029. AKTOR also holds about 30% of the Greek construction market, in a country where the broker estimates the infrastructure pipeline at 40 billion to 50 billion euros. On that basis, the group could bid for roughly 12 billion euros of work, leaving room for continued scale even as competition intensifies.

The renewables arm is expected to be a major earnings driver, though not without short-term volatility. Euroxx expects installed capacity to reach 1.2 gigawatts over five years from about 520 megawatts at the end of 2026, with EBITDA from the segment seen at 111 million euros in 2030. In the near term, production curtailments and negative power prices are weighing on output, but storage additions should gradually ease that pressure and improve realized returns.

Balance-sheet strength is another part of the story. A 650 million euro capital increase has left AKTOR with a better funding position, with net debt at 429 million euros after the deal and roughly 400 million euros of net cash excluding non-recourse borrowings, according to Euroxx. The broker said leverage may climb as the investment plan is executed, with net debt forecast to approach 2 billion euros by 2029, but still below 4.7 times EBITDA. That is high enough to warrant scrutiny, yet manageable if earnings ramp as projected and capital spending stays on track.

The valuation upgrade uses a sum-of-the-parts framework, reflecting the different economics of AKTOR’s businesses. For shareholders, the appeal is that management now has both the capital and the project pipeline to pursue growth, and possibly additional investments or acquisitions, without immediately stretching the balance sheet. The risk is execution: if construction margins weaken, renewable buildout lags or asset monetization disappoints, the earnings trajectory could prove too optimistic.