Argentina poll shows Milei and Kicillof nearly even

The numbers matter because they suggest Milei’s governing coalition has not yet locked in a durable lead going into the next election cycle, while the Peronist opposition is still capable of mounting a serious challenge around Kicillof, one of its most visible provincial power centers. The report also notes that some individual pollsters show Kicillof ahead, even if the average still favors Milei.

By party bloc, La Libertad Avanza leads with 32.8% versus 28.4% for Peronism/Kirchnerism, but the lead is not large enough to signal political consolidation. The field remains fragmented: the PRO polls at 6.1%, the left at 5.6% and Provincias Unidas at 4.6%, while 17.5% are undecided or refuse to answer.

For investors, the bigger issue is that the poll comes alongside elevated anti-government sentiment and weak economic expectations. The survey says 57.6% disapprove of Milei’s administration, 57.2% hold a negative view of the president, 52.2% are pessimistic about the economy and 61.9% say the country is doing badly or worse than before.

That keeps Argentine assets tied to politics as much as to policy. The ARGT ETF has been pressured below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while YPF and EWW have also seen choppy trading, reflecting how quickly sentiment can shift around reform prospects, fiscal credibility and the odds of policy continuity.

The result is not a forecast of 2027 so much as a warning that Argentina’s political premium is unlikely to disappear soon. The eventual rules for the 2027 race, whether PASO primaries are held, and the direction of the economy will determine whether Milei can turn a narrow advantage into a governing mandate or whether Kicillof becomes the opposition’s best chance to halt his program.