ASML’s stock has climbed far enough to put a split on investors’ radar, but the bigger story is that the Dutch chip-equipment giant is still being valued like a premium infrastructure winner in the AI buildout.
ASML at €1,696.20 as split chatter builds
That matters because ASML sits at the center of the semiconductor supply chain: its extreme ultraviolet lithography tools are indispensable for the most advanced chips, and the company’s latest guidance shows demand is still running hot enough to justify higher earnings expectations. ASML said in July that it now expects 2026 sales of €43 billion to €45 billion, up from its earlier outlook, with gross margin seen at 54% to 56%. For investors, that is the kind of forecast revision that keeps the long-term bullish case intact even after a sharp run in the share price.
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The stock’s move is what has revived the split debate. ASML closed at 1,696.20 on Aug. 5, after touching 1,986.87 on June 30, leaving it well above its 50-day moving average of 1,754.66 and far above its 200-day average of 1,398.10. The shares have pulled back from their highs, but they remain in expensive territory for many retail investors, which is why the question of a split keeps coming up.
Still, investors should not mistake a stock split for the real catalyst. Splits do not change fundamentals; they mainly improve accessibility and can broaden the shareholder base. What matters here is whether ASML’s earnings power is still inflecting higher. On that score, the answer is yes. First-quarter net sales came in at €8.8 billion and second-quarter sales rose to €9.3 billion, while net income improved to €2.9 billion. That is a business with pricing power and strategic scarcity, not just a stock trading on momentum.
The technical picture also suggests the recent pullback is more of a digestion phase than a breakdown. ASML’s RSI reading of 42.6 is neither overbought nor washed out, while the MACD remains below its signal line, indicating some near-term softness after the summer run-up. But the shares are still well above the 200-day moving average, and the broader trend remains constructive as long as capital spending on advanced chips keeps rising.
That is the core investment thesis. The market underestimates how much leverage ASML has to the AI capex cycle, especially as TSMC and Nvidia-related demand continue to anchor spending on the most advanced nodes. TSMC’s own latest revenue trend and ASML’s stronger outlook both point to an ecosystem that is still investing aggressively in compute capacity, even if the pace is uneven month to month.
I believe the better question is not whether ASML will split its stock this year, but whether the company has entered a multi-year earnings expansion that could make today’s price look modest in hindsight. If management does decide to split, it would likely come after the shares establish a higher and more durable trading range. Until then, the real opportunity is to own the toll booth on the AI supply chain, not to speculate on the paperwork. For investors seeking exposure to the next leg of semiconductor infrastructure spending, ASML remains one of the highest-conviction names to hold.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| ASML shareholders | ▲Higher valuation support | ▼Short-term volatility |
| Retail investors | ▲Lower post-split price if approved | ▼No fundamental gain from split |
| TSMC and leading chipmakers | ▲More advanced tools supply | ▼Higher capital intensity |
| Short-term traders | ▲Volatility around split rumors | ▼Missed upside if long thesis plays out |
