Bitcoin is still in the early stages of a broader crypto bull market, according to market maker Wintermute, even as XRP and NEAR pause after a strong run and the altcoin rally shows signs of fatigue.
Bitcoin Holds Support as Altcoin Rally Slows
That matters because the market is no longer being driven only by crypto-native flows. Wintermute says the next leg will depend heavily on macro conditions, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields at 5.35% and 30-year yields at 5.6%, the highest since 2008, raising the risk that a selloff in stocks could spill over into digital assets as Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 rises.
Bitcoin traded about 2.4% higher on the week near $86,100 in the source report, after holding support around $82,500. The next upside zone is seen at $90,000 to $95,000, where retail enthusiasm earlier this year met heavy profit-taking. In the latest market data, BTC-USD last closed at $82,524.90, with the 50-day moving average at $80,545 and the 200-day average at $71,802, while RSI sat at 40.2, a sign the market is still recovering rather than stretched.
For investors, the message is split: Bitcoin remains the cleaner expression of the cycle, but the easy altcoin trade may already be behind traders. The altcoin index fell 1.1% for its first weekly decline since early August, while XRP and NEAR have been consolidating after outsized gains. XRP was last at $1.40, below its 50-day average of $1.43, with RSI at 26.8, while NEAR traded at $5.01, still well above its 200-day average of $2.11 but off recent peaks, with RSI easing to 55.3 from overbought levels earlier in the run.
Wintermute’s broader point is that the market is rotating, not ending. Capital is moving from high-quality large caps into smaller tokens that missed the prior surge, a pattern the firm warns can trap late buyers in lower-quality assets. At the same time, fresh narratives around DePIN, artificial intelligence and AI agents are still drawing money into select projects, supporting the view that the cycle has more room to run.
The next key test is political as much as financial. Investors are watching the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3, which could reduce uncertainty around Treasury markets and improve the backdrop for risk assets, including crypto. Until then, Bitcoin’s ability to hold support while altcoins cool will likely decide whether this remains a healthy consolidation or a broader reset.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin bulls | ▲Early-cycle narrative | ▼Tight stop at $82,500 |
| NEAR and XRP holders | ▲Long-term rotation thesis | ▼Short-term momentum buyers |
| Quality altcoins | ▲Fresh capital inflows | ▼Overextended low-quality tokens |
| Equity and rate-sensitive risk assets | ▲Easier macro backdrop if yields ease | ▼Higher Treasury yields and stock weakness |
