BMW is getting relative support from Bernstein Research as the brokerage says Chinese automakers are reshaping Europe’s car market but are still less of a threat to premium names such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Porsche than to mass-market brands.
BMW Holds Bernstein Outperform at 82 Euro Target
Bernstein kept its “Outperform” rating on BMW and a 82 euro price target, saying the first wave of Chinese competition in Europe was driven by acquisitions, while a newer phase is being marked by rising recognition of Chinese brands themselves. The note argues that mass-market automakers are most exposed, while premium marques retain more pricing power and brand protection.
That matters because the European auto market is already under pressure from slowing demand, heavier discounting and a sharper split between premium and volume players. For BMW, the call supports the view that its higher-end lineup can better absorb Chinese competition than rivals with broader, less differentiated portfolios.
The analyst was more cautious on Stellantis, calling its portfolio bloated, and flagged Ford and VW’s Seat brand as especially weak. Renault’s Dacia was also singled out as needing to prove a recent sales drop is cyclical rather than a sign of intensifying China competition.
BMW shares in Frankfurt have fallen sharply in recent months, with the stock closing at 21.22 euros on Sept. 25, well below its 50-day moving average of 22.96 euros and 200-day average of 28.10 euros. The relative softness leaves investors focused on whether premium brands can hold margins as Chinese rivals expand further into Europe.
For investors, the key question is not whether Chinese brands keep growing, but which automakers can defend pricing and volume. Bernstein’s call suggests BMW remains one of the better-positioned incumbents if Europe’s auto shakeout continues to favor premium makers over weaker mainstream brands.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| BMW | ▲Premium-brand protection | ▼Less exposure than mass-market rivals |
| Mercedes-Benz/Porsche | ▲Brand strength in Europe | ▼Pressure from wider China competition |
| Stellantis | ▲— | ▼Bloated portfolio, weaker positioning |
| Ford/VW Seat/Dacia | ▲— | ▼Greater vulnerability to Chinese brands |
