Coinbase, Strategy, Robinhood and Block Face Earnings Test

Strategy is the clearest expression of the old crypto thesis: own a lot of Bitcoin and let the market do the work. The company said it expects a third-quarter gain on digital assets of $20.91 billion after an $8.32 billion loss in the second quarter, a swing driven almost entirely by the mark-to-market value of its roughly 848,000 Bitcoin. That kind of accounting can produce eye-popping results, but it also reminds investors how tightly the stock is tied to Bitcoin’s direction. Strategy is not really a software or operating business story anymore — it is a leveraged bet on the coin itself.

Coinbase is more interesting for investors who want a real operating business attached to crypto. In the second quarter, the exchange posted $1.22 billion in revenue and a $359.5 million net loss, while transaction revenue fell 21% from the prior quarter. Yet its subscription and services revenue held up at $555.1 million, and its market share of crypto trading volume climbed to a record 10.3%. That is the key tension in the stock: trading activity still drives the headline results, but the company is trying to build a steadier business around stablecoins, custody and other recurring revenue streams. For the third quarter, Coinbase guided subscription and services revenue to $500 million to $580 million, a range that suggests the company is still leaning on diversification rather than a full recovery in trading volumes.

That makes the upcoming reports from Robinhood and Block especially important. Robinhood, which reports on Oct. 27, has not given a third-quarter revenue or profit outlook, so investors will be watching closely for evidence that retail trading appetite has improved. In a market where crypto sentiment can turn quickly, Robinhood often serves as an early signal for the health of individual investors. Block, due Nov. 3, has already told investors to expect third-quarter gross profit of $3.13 billion and raised its full-year targets. That gives it a higher bar to clear, but also suggests a more diversified business than a pure-play crypto platform.

The backdrop is not especially friendly. Bitcoin sentiment in Adalytica’s gauge sits in “Fear” at 16, even though awareness remains neutral, while the broader S&P 500 signal shows “Extreme Fear.” Coinbase shares have also been volatile, and conventional technical indicators show the stock recently trading below its 50-day moving average and only slightly above its 200-day average, a sign that momentum is still shaky. Robinhood’s shares have likewise pulled back from earlier highs, while its RSI readings have cooled enough to suggest the market has become more cautious ahead of earnings.

For investors, the real lesson is allocation, not excitement. Strategy offers the most direct upside to Bitcoin — and the most direct downside. Coinbase offers a more balanced way to play the growth of crypto markets, especially if stablecoins and services keep expanding. Robinhood and Block are broader consumer-finance stories with crypto as one ingredient rather than the entire recipe. In the long run, that usually makes them easier to own through cycles.

If you want exposure to crypto, the next few weeks should help you separate speculative leverage from durable compounding. The stocks worth watching are not necessarily the ones with the biggest Bitcoin headlines, but the ones building the strongest businesses around them.