Dollar Falls After US Jobless Claims Ease Rate Bets

In local trade, the dollar opened down 6.4 pesos, changing hands at 932.7 pesos for sellers and 931.2 pesos for buyers by 9:27 a.m. The weaker dollar coincided with a small rise in copper on the London Metal Exchange, where the metal gained 0.03% to $6.51 a pound, offering additional support to the Chilean peso.

The catalyst was a US weekly jobless-claims reading of 206,000, close to the 205,000 expected but above the previous 204,000, which traders read as evidence that the labor market is cooling modestly rather than overheating. That came alongside remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who suggested the central bank could pause if inflation keeps improving. Together, the data and policy comments led markets to dial back expectations for another rate hike in September.

That repricing is important well beyond the dollar. A less hawkish Fed typically pulls Treasury yields lower, eases financial conditions and reduces pressure on emerging-market currencies that are sensitive to the US rate cycle. It also matters for commodities, because a softer dollar tends to make dollar-priced metals cheaper for non-US buyers.

The local currency response reflects that broader macro trade. Chile’s peso tends to benefit when the dollar weakens and copper firms, and the current setup leaves it exposed to the next US labor release. Markets are now looking past the jobless-claims report to the services and manufacturing PMI readings later in the day, but the bigger test is Friday’s payrolls report, which could either confirm the cooling narrative or force investors to rebuild Fed tightening bets.

For now, the dominant message is that the market is moving toward the view that US policy is becoming less restrictive, and that is enough to keep the dollar under pressure unless incoming data re-accelerate.