Gold, silver, platinum rebound on Fed rate outlook

By early afternoon in China, COMEX gold was up 0.57% at $4,204.9 an ounce, while COMEX silver rose 0.99% to $57.875 an ounce. On the domestic side, SHFE gold gained 0.42% to 902.56 yuan per gram and SHFE silver advanced 1.09% to 14,040 yuan a kilogram. Platinum outperformed, with the main contract rising 1.92% to 405.85 yuan per gram, extending gains for a second straight day, while palladium edged up 0.28% to 269.8 yuan per gram.

The equity market followed suit. The A-share precious-metals sector ended up 0.97%, with Chifeng Gold climbing 3.74% and peers including Shandong Gold, Western Gold, Zhongjin Gold and Shanjin International among the leaders. That response reflects the leverage miners have to a stabilizing bullion tape after weeks of pressure from higher funding costs and aggressive rate-hike speculation.

Platinum’s relative strength also points to a more nuanced trade than a simple gold rebound. The metal has support from tighter ingot availability and improving expectations for automotive catalysts and hydrogen-related demand, while palladium is drawing some of the same industrial demand narrative. In the spot market, platinum ingot quotations moved to around parity to a small premium versus the PT2612 contract, with suppliers reluctant to sell and buyers more willing to accept premium pricing, even as platinum powder near parity still met resistance. Silver, by contrast, remained sluggish in cash trade, with downstream buyers waiting for clearer price direction after last week’s sharp swings.

The bigger question for investors is whether this is the start of a durable floor or just a technical bounce. Conventional indicators on gold and silver ETFs still point to a market that is not fully healed: GLD remains below its 50-day moving average and its 200-day average, while SLV is also weak and near the lower end of its recent range. Adalytica’s gold fear-and-greed gauge shows neutral sentiment but extreme fear in awareness, underscoring how fragile positioning remains after the recent selloff.

That leaves the market balancing two competing forces. Bulls argue that central-bank buying, ETF inflows and fiscal worries still support the longer-term case for bullion, particularly if U.S. yields retreat further. Bears counter that any renewed hawkish surprise from the Fed, or a rebound in yields and the dollar, could quickly cap the move. For now, the rebound says precious metals remain highly sensitive to policy expectations, and platinum’s two-day advance suggests traders are still hunting for relative-value opportunities within a sector that has been punished, but not structurally dislodged.