Greek Shipowners Add More Conventional-Fuel Newbuilds

Petrofin Research, using Clarkson data, said the Greek orderbook held 678 conventional-fuel ships totaling 81.6 million deadweight tons at the end of July 2026, up from 429 ships and 40.9 million dwt at the end of June 2025. Conventional-fuel vessels now make up 86% of the Greek orderbook by capacity, versus 76% a year earlier.

The shift is even clearer in the alternative-fuels camp. LNG-capable ships slipped to 92 from 97, and their share of the Greek orderbook fell to 12% from 21%. LPG-tonnage inched higher to 33 ships, while methanol remained a tiny niche at four ships. Ammonia, long pitched as a future zero-carbon fuel, has barely arrived, with just two ships on order.

For investors, that is a meaningful tell. The near-term winners are shipbuilders and marine-equipment suppliers tied to standard propulsion, along with owners who want to avoid paying up for unproven technology. The losers are the alternative-fuel value chain — bunker infrastructure, dual-fuel engineering, and the companies whose investment case depends on a rapid adoption curve that still has not materialized.

The economics are straightforward. Tier III conventional ships can meet current emissions rules without forcing owners into the much higher upfront cost, operational uncertainty and fuel-availability risk that come with LNG, methanol or ammonia. Petrofin said the hesitation reflects regulatory uncertainty and poor visibility on the payback of alternative propulsion systems. In other words, the decarbonization thesis is intact, but the market is refusing to commit capital before the rules, refueling network and fuel economics become clearer.

This is not just a Greek story. Petrofin said a similar pattern is showing up in China, where conventional-fuel ships now account for 78% of the orderbook, up from 68%. That suggests a broader global pause in alternative-fuel ordering, not a one-off decision by one national fleet.

That helps explain why shipping equities tied to the old model have remained attractive. Tickers such as Scorpio Tankers and Pyxis Tankers are exposed to a world where owners still prioritize earnings visibility, compliance flexibility and low upfront capex over a full technology leap. In our view, the market underestimates how long this hesitation can last.

The key catalyst now is whether regulators and fuel suppliers can close the gap between ambition and economics. Until then, the strongest investment case in shipping may sit not with the green transition itself, but with the picks-and-shovels of conventional tonnage, fuel transport and vessels that can keep earning while the industry waits.