Nasdaq 100 Nears June High as Tech Leads Rebound

The Nasdaq 100’s latest leg higher has been driven by large-cap technology, with the index now trading above its 50-day moving average and holding well above its 200-day moving average. The daily momentum setup is constructive: RSI readings are elevated but not yet stretched into a classic reversal zone, while MACD remains positive, indicating the rally still has trend support. If the index clears the June highs, previous resistance around 30,329 and 30,195 should turn into support, leaving the 29,372 area as the first level that would test the short-term bullish case.

The underlying market story is broader than one chart. Strong demand for Meta’s Muse AI assistant helped revive enthusiasm for tech stocks and sent the Nasdaq to a record close, while AMD moved above a $1 trillion valuation. That kind of leadership matters for index performance because the Nasdaq 100 remains highly concentrated in a handful of mega-cap names whose earnings power and AI spending plans are now driving much of U.S. equity returns.

At the same time, the dollar’s advance against the yen underscores that the market is still pricing a meaningful rate gap between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. USD/JPY is approaching a cluster of resistance around ¥158.02 to ¥158.40, with a break there opening a retest of ¥159.78 and ¥160.39. For investors, that matters because a firmer dollar tends to tighten global financial conditions, supports U.S. asset prices relative to overseas markets and can amplify pressure on import-sensitive economies and companies with foreign earnings.

Brent crude’s rebound to around $101 a barrel adds another layer. Oil has stabilized after a five-day decline, helped by short covering and geopolitical caution around the Middle East, but the move also keeps alive the inflation risk that has pushed central banks toward a hawkish stance. Markets are still pricing roughly a 56% chance of another U.S. rate increase in October, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem’s comments suggest policymakers are not prepared to declare victory over inflation.

That creates a mixed but generally supportive environment for risk assets. Higher oil can improve energy-sector earnings and bolster commodity-linked currencies, but it also acts as a tax on consumers and raises the odds that interest rates stay restrictive for longer. A stronger dollar and rising yields, in turn, usually challenge the most expensive parts of the equity market — which is why the Nasdaq’s ability to keep rallying despite those headwinds is important.

The bullish case is straightforward: the index is being led by companies with strong balance sheets, robust margins and exposure to secular AI demand, while the macro backdrop is still accommodative enough for investors to chase momentum. The bear case is equally clear: if Brent keeps climbing, the Fed may remain hawkish longer, the yen’s weakness may deepen, and stretched tech valuations could become more vulnerable if earnings expectations stop rising.

For now, the market is voting for growth. The next test is whether the Nasdaq 100 can convert its push toward June highs into a decisive breakout while USD/JPY and Brent crude stay bid. If that happens, it would confirm that investors are willing to live with tighter policy and firmer commodity prices so long as the AI-led earnings story continues to deliver.