Nasdaq Rebounds on Stronger Labor Data

The Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq-100, rose to 690.38 on the latest session after sliding as low as 647.05 this month, while the ETF’s 50-day moving average sat near 718.87, showing the index is still repairing damage from the selloff. RSI readings around 46 suggest momentum has improved from oversold levels but has not fully reset.

Nvidia, the poster child for the AI boom, remains under heavy pressure despite the bounce. The stock closed at 173.73 after falling to 168.89 a day earlier, far below its 50-day average of 217.10, while its RSI at 26.4 points to deeply oversold conditions. Microsoft also bounced after a sharp drop, but at 521.13 it was still below recent highs and near its 50-day average of 518.2, reflecting how fragile the recovery remains.

The labor backdrop is the key macro driver for investors. Adalytica’s payrolls gauge is at 100, or “Extreme Greed,” while its job market sentiment reading collapsed to 18, “Fear,” highlighting how quickly expectations have swung as traders reassess the path for rates and the health of the economy.

Treasury markets are not offering much relief. Adalytica’s US Treasury Bonds trade signal still points to “Extreme Greed” for bonds, but awareness has fallen to “Fear,” consistent with a market that is hedging against stickier policy and less imminent easing.

For investors, the question is whether the rebound marks a durable turn in the AI trade or just a pause after one of the sector’s sharpest pullbacks in months. CoreWeave’s latest earnings helped ease some worries about AI spending, but the group remains vulnerable to rate expectations, regulation headlines and signs of crowded positioning.

The next test is whether the labor data translates into firmer Treasury yields and more pressure on high-duration tech stocks, or whether earnings from the AI complex can keep the Nasdaq’s recovery alive.